Market Outlook and Analysis (Nov2019 Week1)

Currency Pair: AUDUSD

Fundamental Analysis – AUDUSD

The trade negotiation between the US and China is progressing. The phase 1 of the agreement expected to be signed by mid-November. The gist of the agreement:

  • Rolling back some tariffs & remove the planned 15th Dec tariff
  • Changes to the IP laws and commitment to currency manipulations
  • Resuming agriculture purchase to the pre 2019 trade war levels

The RBA will have a rate decision in November, policy makers are willing to keep cutting rates if necessary. The RBA could soon follow the lead of their counterparts in adopting the unconventional measures such as the Quantitative Easing (QE).  

Technical Analysis – AUDUSD

AUDUSD H4 Chart: (Trade Review) – Sitting on a +45pips profits on a Bat Short

Took a short on the completion of the Bearish Bat Pattern on Tuesday. The pair has since ease down slowly, now sitting on a +45pips profits. At the open of the trading week, I would be considering to shift the SL to at least the Entry Point to ensure that this trade does not turn negative. Effectively making it a Risk-Free Trade.

AUDUSD D1 Chart – Completes the Bearish Bat Pattern

Completed the Bearish Bat Pattern and fell. I would be more comfortable on this short if the RSI breaks below the 50-level mark. This would give a stronger bearish indication for this pair on the Daily chart.

AUDUSD H4 Chart – Profit Line to protect profits

I would be applying the Profit TL tactics to protect this short trade and to ensure that the Bears are still in command. Expecting the Bears to be in control the following week.


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