Market Outlook and Analysis (Nov2019 Week1)

Currency Pair: GBPJPY

Fundamental Analysis – GBPJPY

The series of development were coming out of the Brexit negotiations the previous 1-2weeks. In summary, below were the sequence of events that occurred:

  • PM Boris Johnson has made progress with the EU representatives
  • The UK Parliament agreed to the Brexit Terms but delayed the implementation, asking for an extension
  • The EU representatives agreed on the extension, but will decide on the amount of time to be given next week. The extension will probably be shorter that the requested 3months
  • PM Johnson will be calling for a snap election this coming week but could be unlikely he will get the support to proceed

These continuous stream of news and uncertainty has been limiting the upside of the GBP

Technical Analysis – GBPJPY

GBPJPY H4 Chart: (Trade Review) – Riding the short with Protective Stops in place (+140pips)

The recent week turmoil in the Parliament caused GBP to correct after the huge rally from the positive Brexit news. I believe any further turmoil will not dip GBP to the levels before the positive Brexit news. This short trade had protective stops in place, making it a Risk-Free Trade, the best type of trade in my eyes.

GBPJPY D1 Chart: Ideal trading scenario, a correction before another major rally

From the Daily charts, I would expect to see some correction as the UK and the EU sort out the schedule and implementation of the Brexit. I would expect the correction to be supported by a more significant Support levels and start to rally again as the cloudy skies clears up.

Still expecting the pair to complete the potential Bearish Bat Pattern higher at 144.00.

GBPJPY H4 Chart – Temporary downtrend until high is broken

The H4 Chart is indicating to us a temporary downtrend. Ideally, we can ride this short until the Support level or when the RSI shows us an Oversold or a Bullish Divergence hint of a reversal.

Let’s monitor this pair closely, at the open of the trading week as more news of Brexit trickles in.


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