Market Outlook and Analysis (Nov2019 Week2)

Currency Pair: AUDUSD

Fundamental Analysis – AUDUSD

I believe that this is a Risk-Off market:

  • US NFP data came in stronger than expected (128k vs 90k)
  • US-China trade negotiations progressing well (updated last week)
  • Stock Indices heading higher, making new highs
  • FOMC cutting rates to encourage growth/economy

Risk-Off scenarios will naturally see AUDUSD heading higher. Now the spoiler might be the RBA rate decision on 5 Nov

Technical Analysis – AUDUSD

AUDUSD H4 Chart: (Trade Review) – Exit trade after TL violated (+21pips profits)

The Bat short missed the TP1 by about 10pips only and it started to go against me. SL was already at Entry Price, managed to exit the trade as it started to go against me. Exit at +21pips.

Read last week’s analysis HERE

AUDUSD D1 Chart – Breaking above the Sept-Oct Highs

AUDUSD managed to break above the Sept & Oct highs, indicating the Bulls are in the market. We could potentially be at the start of a new daily uptrend. The Resistance TL will be the first test of the Bulls.

AUDUSD H4 Chart – Where do the stars align??

I have spotted a Buy Zone on the H4, a potential Bullish Bat pattern forming (however it is a little too early to tell) and an obvious Support Trend Line. I will watch this closely to look for a buying opportunity at where all the stars align on this AUDUSD pair.


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