Market Outlook and Analysis (Oct2019 Week3)

Currency Pair: GBPJPY

Fundamental Analysis – GBPJPY

On Thursday, talks between the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his Irish counterpart Leo Varadkar found a path towards a possible deal. This caused the GBP to rally hard. The optimism is guarded as negotiators will still have to sort out the details.

Intense Brexit talks between the UK and EU officials will continue through the weekend with the aim of having a solid proposal by the EU summit on the 17th and 18th Oct. Any potential agreement has to be signed off by all 27 EU members.

Technical Analysis – GBPJPY

GBPJPY H4 Chart: (Trade Review) – Protective Stops triggered, locking in +190pips profits.

Trade has been running since the 17th Sept and it finally hit TP1 on the 1st Oct with +225pips profits. The pair continued its downtrend to within 60pips of the target (+420pips). As traders, we should always look to lock in profits or minimally protect some profits.

As the good news of a potential Brexit negotiation trickled into the market, the pair rallied hard and took out the protective stop at a profit of +190pips.

GBPJPY D1 Chart – Potential Bounce towards Resistance

Thou the positive news coming from the Brexit negotiations, trades must be fully aware that things can easily turn for the worse at any time. Remember we are still dealing with politics here. The carts showing us a potential ABCD pattern completing at a resistance zone.

GBPJPY H4 Chart – Profit Trendline as an indication to protect profits

At the close of the trading week, the pair looked over stretched. RSI showing over bought on both H4 and D1 time frame. Would not be surprised by a quick pull back to a resistance turned support level before the rally continues. Assuming negotiations over the weekend continues in a positive manner.


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