Market Outlook and Analysis (Oct2019 Week4)

Currency Pair: AUDUSD

Fundamental Analysis – AUDUSD

AUDUSD continues to be linked to the risk appetite, recently determined by the positive trade talks between US and China. The AUDUSD surged to close at the monthly high at around 0.6855. The employment data came in close to the expectation. Unemployment rate came in at 5.2% vs the expected 5.3%. This upbeat data eases the pressure of the RBA rate cuts in November.

However, the latest RBA meeting minutes showed that the policy makers are willing to keep cutting rates if necessary.

Technical Analysis – AUDUSD

AUDUSD D1 Chart – Potential Bearish Bat Pattern

There was a strong bullish move towards the Bearish Bat PRZ. Would be more cautious to see a reaction at the PRZ before taking the short. Ideally if the RSI shows an over bought on the Daily chart.

AUDUSD H4 Chart – Pair surged towards the Bearish Bat Pattern

Pair about to complete the Bearish Bat Pattern. H4 RSI all seems primed at the overbought zone for a nice fall.

Throwing caution into the air when taking a trade at the completion of the Bearish Bat pattern. Expect to see AUDUSD going much higher if we see more positive news emerging from the trade negotiations and good employment data to provide reasons to delay any further rate cuts in the near future.


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