Market Outlook and Analysis (Sept2019 Week4)

Currency Pair: GBPJPY

Fundamental Analysis – GBPJPY

The MPC voted 0-0-9 to keep the official bank rates unchanged for the month of September. On the Brexit front, there were lack of any solid development, but this has not stopped the market from buying the pound, hoping for some positive news out of the Brexit negotiations.

However, a lack of real optimism has been limiting the appeal for GBP. The continued market jitters and geopolitical tension has on the other hand made the safe heaven JPY appealing.

Technical Analysis – GBPJPY

GBPJPY H4 Chart: (Trade Review) – Shorts now barely sitting on a profit.

Triggered a short on the Bearish Bat Pattern. Price tested PtX several times throughout the week and the SL levels held. The weakness in the GBP has help pushed down the pair, currently sitting on a mere +15pips profits. Targeting a minimum 200 pip move.

GBPJPY D1 Chart – Bearish Bat Pattern Completion at Sell Zone.

The pair completed the Bearish Bat Pattern (at a Sell Zone) and hovered around the zone for the entre trading week. The large bearish daily candle on Friday, engulfing the last three days candles, is indicating that there could be further. I have a bearish bias in this upcoming trading week.

GBPJPY H4 Chart – Start of a new downtrend

With the Bearish bias, I would be looking for continuation pattern (bear flag & pennants) to trade all the way down. Barring any new fundamental development from the Brexit negotiation, we could be expecting this pair to head towards 132.20 and 130.50.

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