Market Outlook and Analysis (Sept2019 Week2)

Currency Pair: GBPJPY

Fundamental Analysis – GBPJPY

The pound traded stronger with high implied volatility. The key driver for the move higher was the Brexit headlines. The UK parliament rejected the proposal of holding a snap election and pushed for the idea to seek for a 3-month delay in Brexit if there is no agreement reached.

The CFTC data shows that the net short positions are still high, any unwinding would push the GBP higher. Could we be expecting more rally ahead?

Technical Analysis – GBPJPY

GBPJPY H4 Chart: (Trade Review) – The missed trade

This was a trade that didn’t happen for me. If you have been following my past week’s posts, you should know that I was waiting for the bearish pattern completion (in green). As the market opened last week it went lower and I paid less attention to it.

Big mistake as I missed spotting the bullish Gartley (in maroon). Looking at it again on hindsight, I really missed a very good trade. The rally after hitting the PRZ was just amazing.

GBPJPY D1 Chart – Trend Line (Broken) and Horizontal (Holding) Resistance

The pair broke above the resistance TL, but is held down by the horizontal TL. From the charts, together with the fundamentals, they are showing me a more bullish sentiment. Expecting this pair to start a new bullish trend up. Next week, I would like to see price break above the horizontal TL.

GBPJPY H4 Chart – Pull back to the buy Zone

Looking for a pull back to the buy zone to go long. This would be a great setup as the targets can be stretched all the way up to the completion of the Bearish Bat pattern.


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