Market Outlook and Analysis (Sept2019 Week3)

Currency Pair: EURGBP

Fundamental Analysis – EURGBP

The GBP closed off the week strong mainly because of the following reasons:

  1. the chances of a ‘No-deal’ Brexit on 31 October seems to have receded
  2. a general election looks more a reality
  3. an extension to Article 50

The ECB has cut the deposit rate by 10bps to -0.5% and a QE2 to start in November with a EUR20bil purchase monthly and will run ‘for as long as necessary’

Technical Analysis – EURGBP

EURGBP H4 Chart: (Trade Review) – Bullish Bat Pattern hit Stop Loss (-81pips)

The Pair competed a Bullish Bat Pattern. It struggled around the PRZ and the support trend line too could not hold prices up. With the new fundamental UK political backdrop and the ECB, the pair fell lower to hit the trade SL with a loss of -81pips.

EURGBP D1 Chart: Strong downward momentum

The Daily downward momentum is strong. However, we are approaching a minor support at the 0.8815/35 levels. Breaking below this level, we could probably see the 0.8500 levels again.

 EURGBP H4 Chart: Bearish move to continue in coming weeks.

With both the Fundamental and Technical reasons aligned, we are expecting this pair to move lower. A retracement to the support turned resistance levels would give a great opportunity to short this pair.


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