Market Outlook and Analysis (Aug2019 Week5)

Currency Pair: AUDUSD

Fundamental Analysis – AUDUSD

The latest RBA minutes gave the market a message that the monetary policy could be eased in response to an unexpected deterioration of the global economy. Previously the focus was on the jobs data. Now the forecast is a 25bps cut in October and another 25bps cut in February next year.

In the US-Sino trade war, China has retaliated by imposing a 5-10% tax on $75B goods from the US. Causing a Risk-Off scenario and I would be expecting more downside to the commodities currency and the stock markets.

Technical Analysis – AUDUSD

AUDUSD D1 Chart – Consolidating at the 0.6700/6800 levels

Not much movements and change to the analysis from last week. AUDUSD consolidated the whole entire week.  Expecting more consolidation movement before a breakout occurs.

AUDUSD H4 Chart – Potential Bullish Gartley

Currently well resisted at 0.6820. A potential Bullish Gartley is forming up with a buy zone around the 0.67 levels. Waiting patiently for the pair to drop towards the buy zone to consider to go long.