Market Outlook and Analysis (Sept2019 Week2)

Currency Pair: AUDUSD

Fundamental Analysis – AUDUSD

The RBA held the interest rates firmed at 1.00%. The Aussie GDP came in at +0.5% qoq, as expected, giving some hope for RBA to hold rates firm again in October. Currently the market continues to expect rate cuts of up to 50bps over the next 2 meetings in October and February.

The risk off sentiment received a breather as China and US set to resume trade talks. We saw the stock market rally & the USD losing strength as traders move away from the safe heaven currencies. USD weakness also partially caused by the NFP data coming in weaker at 130k versus the expected 163k.

Technical Analysis – AUDUSD

AUDUSD H4 Chart: (Trade Review) – Bullish Bat gives another +48pips

In the previous week, the Bullish Bartley captured +62pips profits and earlier last week, the Bullish Bat captured another +48pips. As stated in the midweek updates, on hindsight, it would have been better to set a stretched target on this pair.  Else it would be sitting on over +150pips of profits.

AUDUSD D1 Chart – Expecting to break above temporary resistance

AUDUSD started to move, breaking out of the consolidation mode. Currently at a support turned resistance level. However, I am expecting the pair to break above. The trade plan will be to go long on a retracement. Bullish bias.

AUDUSD H4 Chart – Looking to go long on any retracement to support zone

With a bullish bias, I would be waiting to get into a long trade on any retracement move towards a buy zone. I believe that the scenario (1) above will probably be more likely as compared to scenario (2).


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