Market Outlook and Analysis (Oct2019 Week2)

Currency Pair: AUDUSD

Fundamental Analysis – AUDUSD

The RBA did indeed make a 25bps interest rate cut on Tuesday. Pushing the AUDUSD down to test the lows at 0.6670 (around the Aug lows). The RBA is expecting to implement further cuts towards 0.25% by 2020. However, the market sees that cuts in an extremely low rates will have minimal effect on the economy.

The Australian banks are encouraged not to be too overly cautious over the current lending policies. The rate cuts have prompted the big four banks to cut mortgage rates by 0.13-0.15%

The NFP employment data came in slightly weaker than expected (+136k vs expected +145k). The Aug figures were revised from 130k to 168k. The September unemployment dropped from 3.7% to 3.5%. This gave the USD a slight boost.

Technical Analysis – AUDUSD

AUDUSD D1 Chart – Bounced off 2019 lows

After the RBA rate cut, the AUDUSD tested and bounced off the 2019 lows and steadily rallied for the next 2 consecutive days towards an intermediate minor resistance level. Will be looking towards the next trading week to see how it tests and reacts to this resistance level again.

AUDUSD H4 Chart – Challenging a minor Resistance level.

The pair did bounce off the 2019 lows with a Bullish RSI Divergence. The RBA rate cuts was a distraction to my trading week, the dovish rate cut fundamentally was conflicting with my idea to go long. (See last week’s analysis on AUDUSD). Hence, I didn’t take the trade.

In this next up and coming trading week. I would like to see the pair decisively break above the resistance levels to go long. Else we could see a test of the lows again as the Bears dominate the pair.


Hi Everyone,

Have you been following our posts, liking them, seeing how we lock in the Pips. Letting the winners run and cutting the losers short. What is keeping you from finding out how we do this on a weekly basis. Calling out to those of you who are:

  • Working adults who are jaded from your daily lives and looking for an alternative
  • Traders who has been trading for over a year and have not achieve the results you desire
  • Wanting to make a difference to their financial goals

Stop procrastinating, register HERE NOW and come and see how we trade the market. Bring along an open mind to think out of the box to be successful in trading.

Please share with your friends whom you think will benefit from this too. Let’s trade together as a close knitted community of successful traders.