Market Outlook and Analysis (Sept2019 Week1)
Currency Pair: AUDUSD
Fundamental Analysis – AUDUSD
The latest RBA minutes gave the market a message that the monetary policy could be eased in response to an unexpected deterioration of the global economy. Now the forecast is a 25bps cut in October and another 25bps cut in February next year.
This coming trading week will be packed with economic data release that could affect the AUDUSD:
- Monday 9.45am – Caixin Manufacturing PMI
- Tuesday 9.30am – AUD Retail sales, 12.30pm – RBA Cash Rates & Statement, 10pm – US ISM Manufacturing PMI
- Wednesday 9.30am – Aussie GDP Q/Q (expected +0.5%), 9.45am – Caixin Service PMI
- Thursday 9.30am – Aussie Trade Balance, 8.15pm ADP Non-farm Employment
- Friday 8.30pm – US Non-farm employment data
Technical Analysis – AUDUSD
AUDUSD H4 Chart: (Trade Review) – Bullish Gartley Hits TP2 (+62pips)
Thou the pair has been ranging between 0.67 & 0.68 levels for the entire month of August, finally the trade setup completed at the last week and almost instantaneously moved in our favour. Closed the trade at TP2 with a total of +62pips. Kachinggg !!!
AUDUSD D1 Chart – Consolidating at the 0.6700/6800 levels
AUDUSD stayed within the consolidation mode. The price movement on the last day of trading indicates that the support at 0.67 is holding on well. With the crowded economic data release next week, I believe the pair will be breaking out of this consolidation mode soon, with a bullish bias.
AUDUSD H4 Chart – Potential Bullish Bat + Type II entry of the Previous Gartley
Another potential Bullish setup giving me that bullish bias. There is a Type II entry for the earlier Gartley coupled with a not-so-ideal Bullish Bat pattern (Hint – Measure the FTZ). Breaking above the resistance TL and the horizontal 0.68 consolidation will confirm a strong Bullish move. Stay tuned to the economic data releases for more hints of the direction of this pair.
Calling out to those of you who are based here in Singapore. We are running a 3-hr Workshop on the 5th Sept (7pm) to share with you how we trade & how you can turn your trading around.
Register HERE by today, bring your friend along too.