Market Outlook and Analysis (Aug2019 Week4)
Currency Pair: AUDUSD
Fundamental Analysis – AUDUSD
The jobs data from Australia all came in better than expected. Wage price index came in at 0.6% vs the expected 0.5% on Wednesday. Number of jobs created was nearly 3x more than expected (41.1k vs 14.2k). The rallies from these new were quite muted.
The market is now expecting 2 rate cuts of 25bps to 0.75% in November and February. Traders have to keep this information in mind. The Sino-US trade war continues to cast doubt over the global economy.
FOMC meeting minutes will be out next Thursday 2am Singapore time.
Technical Analysis – AUDUSD
AUDUSD D1 Chart – Consolidating at the 0.6700/6800 levels
AUDUSD consolidated the whole entire week. Expecting more consolidation movement before a breakout occurs. Without any further catalyst, with all the market expectations of the future rate cuts, we could potentially see a break out to the upside.
AUDUSD H4 Chart – Potential Bullish Gartley
Currently well resisted at 0.6820. Traders can look forward to 2 ways to trade these bullish setups:
- An immediate break above the highs would strengthen the bullish bias. Wait for the retest to go long
- Hopefully there will be a deeper retracement towards the completion of the potential Bullish Gartley Pattern at the 0.6700/10 zone.