Market Outlook and Analysis (Aug2019 Week4)

Currency Pair: AUDUSD

Fundamental Analysis – AUDUSD

The jobs data from Australia all came in better than expected. Wage price index came in at 0.6% vs the expected 0.5% on Wednesday. Number of jobs created was nearly 3x more than expected (41.1k vs 14.2k). The rallies from these new were quite muted.

The market is now expecting 2 rate cuts of 25bps to 0.75% in November and February. Traders have to keep this information in mind. The Sino-US trade war continues to cast doubt over the global economy.

FOMC meeting minutes will be out next Thursday 2am Singapore time.

Technical Analysis – AUDUSD

AUDUSD D1 Chart – Consolidating at the 0.6700/6800 levels

AUDUSD consolidated the whole entire week.  Expecting more consolidation movement before a breakout occurs. Without any further catalyst, with all the market expectations of the future rate cuts, we could potentially see a break out to the upside.

AUDUSD H4 Chart – Potential Bullish Gartley

Currently well resisted at 0.6820. Traders can look forward to 2 ways to trade these bullish setups:

  • An immediate break above the highs would strengthen the bullish bias. Wait for the retest to go long
  • Hopefully there will be a deeper retracement towards the completion of the potential Bullish Gartley Pattern at the 0.6700/10 zone.