Dollar rally pauses as market braces for U.S. inflation data

The U.S. dollar’s rally paused on Thursday as traders waited for consumer inflation data later in the day for clues on whether the Federal Reserve will maintain its gradual pace of credit tightening.

The Australian dollar rose slightly after a report showed Australia’s employment rose by the most in two years in August, though it pared some of the gains after Chinese economic data fell short of market expectations.

The U.S. dollar was at 110.47 yen, steady from the late trade in the U.S. on Wednesday. It earlier rose to 110.735 yen, the highest since Aug. 16.

The dollar, which slid to a 10-month low of 107.32 yen last week on worries over Hurricane Irma and North Korea, has climbed this week as risk sentiment improved and U.S. Treasury yields edged higher.

The currency drew additional help from vague but renewed hopes on President Donald Trump’s tax cuts plans as he reached out to both Democrats and Republicans, even though there remain doubts on whether he can clinch a deal with a divided Congress.

“Trump seems to be paying more attention to the relations with Democrats. Markets liked it as he seems to have learned a lesson from his failure in his healthcare reform,” said Kyosuke Suzuki, director of foreign exchange at Societe Generale in Tokyo.

A near-term focus is U.S. inflation data due later on Thursday that will be closely watched by the U.S. Federal Reserve as it considers when to next raise interest rates.

The market has moved a little bit to the dovish side in terms of Fed expectations, so if let’s say the U.S. inflation numbers turn out to be a bit stronger than expected, then I think it will help add a little bit more to this dollar rebound,” said Heng Koon How, head of markets strategy for United Overseas Bank in Singapore.

However, expectations are for U.S. inflation to remain low-key.

The U.S. core consumer price index is expected to have risen 1.6 percent on an annual basis in August, which would be the lowest since early 2015, versus 1.7 percent in July.

The Fed has a 2 percent inflation target, and a series of subdued inflation readings have dampened expectations for the Fed to raise interest rates again this year and weighed on the dollar.

“I cannot see today’s data giving convincing reasons for the Fed to raise rates in December. So I would assume the dollar is likely to give back some of this week’s gains,” said Ayako Sera, market economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank in Tokyo.

The euro held steady at $1.1878, having pulled back from a 2-1/2 year high of $1.2092 set on Friday.

Later on Thursday, investors will also turn their focus to monetary policy decisions by the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank.

Sterling held steady at $1.3201. On Wednesday it faltered after setting a one-year high of $1.3329, as investors took profits before the BoE policy decision on Thursday.

The BoE’s policymakers are widely expected to leave rates at a record low 0.25 percent when they make their latest policy statement at 1100 GMT.

But all eyes will be on Chief Economist Andy Haldane to see if he switches sides and joins the two members of the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee who have been voting in vain to reverse last year’s quarter-point cut in rates.

The Australian dollar jumped after the employment data but the lackluster economic data from China, one of the country’s biggest trading partners, limited the gains.

China’s investment growth slowed to near 18-year low while output and retail sales figures also fell short of expectations.

The Aussie last traded at 0.8004 after having risen to $0.8017.

Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/uk-global-forex/dollar-rally-pauses-as-market-braces-for-u-s-inflation-data-idUSKCN1BP033

 

Point Of View:

Dollar continues to rally yesterday New York session as there is a renewed hopes on President Trump’s tax cut plan. However, it is vague and doubts remains.

Today dollar pared further rise as market awaiting consumer inflation data to determine whether Fed will raise rate again this year.

Aussie appreciated after upside surprised on the employment data and was subdued subsequently due to lower-than expected China production data. China is Australia’s largest trading partner thus there is a correlation.

Today’s focus will be on BoE bank rate vote and if Chief Economist Haldane decided to vote for no rate hike, there will be a significant drop in pound, otherwise pound will continue to rally.

Market is not expecting a upside result from the U.S.  consumer price index (CPI) data and if that is the case, dollar will lose some of its gain.

However, if there is upside surprise from the CPI data, dollar will appreciate significantly with the expectation that Fed will raise rate again this year.